Writing the Obituary for Bradley Effect is Premature and Foolhardy
Earl Ofari Hutchinson
Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama has never publicly made mention of the Bradley Effect. The Bradley Effect is the label that’s been plopped onto the penchant of many white voters to shade, deceive or just plain lie to pollsters and interviewers when they tell them that color doesn’t mean anything to them in an election. The only thing they claim they look at is the competence and experience of the candidates in an election. In a CNN/Opinion Research Corp.poll released on Martin Luther King', Jr.'s birthday nearly three out of four whites say America's ready for a black president, presumably that means they'd vote for Obama without batting an eye.
After Obama’s breakthrough win in the Iowa caucus election and his narrow loss in New Hampshire, two of the whitest voting states, political experts trumpeted that the vote for Obama was close to that of his numbers in the final polls. They gleefully rushed to write the obituary for the Bradley Effect. They moved to fast. The Bradley Effect is alive and well, and it appeared to be very much in play in Nevada. Hillary Clinton trounced Obama among the state’s white voters. Obama got the overwhelming backing of black voters and that markedly bumped up his vote totals. But they make up less than one in five of the state’s black voters.
The white vote or lack of it that Obama got in Nevada is far more representative and ominous for Obama than the white votes he got in Iowa or New Hampshire. Many Iowa Democrats are independent, populist leaning, and have broken ranks in the past with the Democratic Party’s odds on favored candidates. Obama also got a huge boost from young voters. They were fired up enough by his change message, relative youth and the novelty of his campaign to flood the polls for him. In New Hampshire, legions of voters are independent, even contrarian, in who and how they pick their candidates. But Nevada was a far different story.
Bush won Nevada twice but Bill Clinton also won the state in 1996. At first glance, the state is a political oddity when stacked up against the rock solid GOP states to the North and to the East of Nevada. Its relative political flexibility also makes it a state that seems very much in play for the Democrats. Thousands of the state's voters are young, and could be considered moderate Democrats. But that’s what makes it even more troubling for Obama. A big cornerstone of his pitch is to younger, moderate Democrats, and independents. He has done everything possible to tailor his message, style, persona, and even the appearances he makes in the most racially neutral way possible. There is absolutely no chance that there will be a Jesse Jackson or Al Sharpton sighting in his campaign at least in the swing states.
That’s wise. They would be the political kiss of death for him if there is even the vaguest hint that they are visible in his campaign or too enthusiastically cheer lead his campaign. In fact Sharpton hasn’t endorsed Obama, and Jackson's endorsement has been perfunctory. He has even criticized him a couple of times. Their noticeable hands off his campaign are tacit recognition of the Bradley Effect. Their active involvement in it or even favorable words by them about it could stir the Bradley Effect.
Though Obama has said nothing publicly about the Bradley Effect, he is very much aware that it derailed Bradley’s drive to be the nation's first black governor in modern times, caused Doug Wilder to sweat nervously on Election night in Virginia before he squeaked out a win there for governor in 1989, and helped do in Harvey Gantt and Harold Ford, Jr. in their Senate campaigns in North Carolina and Tennessee. It wreaked havoc in other campaigns where a black has squared off face to face with a white candidate.
Though there's no proof that the Bradley Effect played any role in Obama's defeat in New Hampshire, Obama campaign insiders admit that they are keeping a hawk like eye out for any sign that it could crop up and hurt their man. They’re smart to do that. The plain truth is that if Obama bagged every black vote in every state it wouldn’t insure him the Democratic nomination, let alone the White House. White males still make up nearly forty percent of the American electorate, and older white women make up a big bloc of voters, and the majority of them are Democrats. He can’t win without their votes.
The Bradley Effect is murky, amorphous, and virtually defies fingering. Yet, it will cause nervous moments for Obama’s campaign when it rolls into the South and the other Western and heartland states. There’s a lot of campaign left. To write the obituary for the Bradley Effect is premature, and worse, foolhardy.
Earl Ofari Hutchinson is an author and political analyst. His forthcoming book is The Ethnic Presidency: How Race Decides the Race to the White House (Middle Passage Press, February 2008
22 comments:
If you ask me I think the majority of white America is ready for a Black President more so than Black Americans.
I agree with Mancheeks64. It's not the White vote that Obama has to worry about, it's the Black vote. We are a product of a racist society, and, as such, we are more racist towards Black people than any Hillbilly. If you doubt that fact, just ask yourself, when was the last time you heard of a drive-by perpetrated by a man in a sheet.
It's really sad, but White people seem to be more aware of our potential than we are. And as for Jesse and Sharpton, Black people need to take note, because their failure to get behind Obama clearly demonstrates that entire agenda is more about ego and self-service than what's in the best interest of Black people. They both know that if Obama wins, the gravey train is over--for the first times in their lives, they're going to have to go out and get REAL jobs.
Wattree
Mr. Hutchinson, you seemed to have forgotten the latino vote, & how might they vote esp. in a state like Nevada.
On NPR "Tell Me More" they just did a piece on Latino & how they indentify with Euro-Americans (White) more than African Americans( Black).That well be a big challenge for Obama.
whats the big deal if obama was muslim or is muslim? i read on obamamuslim.com all about it.
Mrs Obama said it correctly,
"Blacks are so used to being
down that they don't know
which way is up!"
They can't fathom and realize
the positiveness of Obama. So like
southern country hick "leaders" like Andrew Young,
John Lewis and others, Blacks are
losing ground in the political
process.
Hello Mustang Sallie,You said,
you said,
"The majority of white American is ready for a black president" say what?! I completely disagree with this comment! The majority of white America would lynch an educated/highly talented black man if they could get away with it. Who are we kidding?! The lynching has gotten sophisticated this century -- through the court system. Jena 6, Genarlow Wilson, Megan Williams, etc, etc. White America will always want black America and other minorities to "stay in there place" and to them, it ain't the White House -- not unless you mowing the lawn or taking out trash. I don't care what whites stand up and say on TV, they are calling us niggers behind closed doors (Duane "Dog" Chapman)."
That seems to include the Clintons, because they seemed to love Black people until one of us decided that he was qualified to sit at the table with them. Now they're calling him every name they can think of.
And theres another thing. I find that many Black people are so appreciative that a White man smiled at them that if he combines that with a pat on the head, they go home and brag to the family, and give that White man their everlasting devotion. I think that's what's happening with the Clintons. So tell me, what have the Clintons done for Black people that deserves so much loyalty from you? Very few Black people can answer that question, but since you seem to be so intelligent, I expect to receive a prompt response (I'll also email you so you'll know I'm waiting).
And beyond that, did you know that while Martin was marching on Washington that Hillary Clinton was working for Barry Goldwater, who was fighting against everything the Martin represented? And did you know that Bill Clinton was responsible for throwing many thousands, many thousand of Black women, and children, off of welfare. And I'm sure you knew that Bill Clinton signed NEFTA into effect, which sent millions of jobs out of the country and many say is partially responsible for the immigration crisis that we're currently facing. And there's another thing--did you know that one of the reasons that Republicans hate Clinton is because they say he stole their agenda?
I'll be waiting to hear from you.
Wattree
If Mustang Sallie is
"not voting" for
Obama why is it
that IT's so
worried about what
would happen to Obama
if he was nominated?
You know,
It funny how when these Black people come up talking about how much they love the Clintons (notice, Obama's not just running against Hillary anymore--it's "the Clintons), and I ask them to tell me one thing the Clintons have done for the Black community, they can never come up with one thing.
I guess that goes for Mustang Sallie as well--I even emailed her the question and she hasn't gotten back with me. But then, maybe she's doing some research. But Sallie, I just want you to know, baby--I'm still waitin'.
Wattree
Wattree,
I find you very funny. I worked 9 hours a day. After work, being a single mother, and not having the luxury of welfare, I take care of my kids afterwards. I'm sorry I can't respond to you in a timely fashion on this blog.
You state, "It funny how when these Black people come up talking about how much they love the Clintons . . ."
I never said I love the Clintons, although through my personal experiences, when Bill Clinton was in office:
1. gas was .96 to $1 a gallon
2. my student load interest rate stayed at 6%
3. I never lost a job; never laid off
4. If I changed jobs it was because I wanted to, NOT because I needed to
5. I never had to refinance my house because of the constant threat of foreclosure
6. The civil rights division of the DOJ was open and hate crimes were being prosecuted AND named "Hate Crimes"
7. Universal healthcare was something proposed and put on the table for consideration
8. More federal money was granted for stem cell, cancer and AIDS/HIV research
I can go on and on . . . I'm sure Obama did and is doing some great things for Chicago, but I directly felt the impact of Bill Clinton and his wife.
Okay, no the Clintons record is not squeaky clean, but who record really is? I suggest you read, "Who Do We Vote For This Time Around? A Letter from Michael Moore."
Finally, you state, "Bill Clinton was responsible for throwing many thousands, many thousand of Black women, and children, off of welfare" HELLO! Black people are not the only people on welfare and as far as I am concern, they need to be thrown off. If I have to struggle with 2 and 3 jobs to survive as a single parent, well, everyone else need to "man-up" too.
"Who Do We Vote For This Time Around? A Letter from Michael Moore."
Link to the article: http://www.michaelmoore.com/words/message/index.php?id=2207 comments
Mustang Sallie,
I didn't ask if Bill was a good president, I asked what did he do for Black people--and then, gave you a list of what he did to hurt us.
Bill and Hillary are nothing more than politicians. They had me fooled too before this election revealed their true nature. It has now become clear to me that they've been manipulating Black people from the start. They loved us at first, but once it became clear the Barack was a credible candidate, they pulled out their race card.
When they began to say he was inexperienced, that was code for "what does a Black man know about being president?" When Hillary said, I'm in the best position to win the election,that was code for, "Do you really think these White folks are really going to vote for a Black man?"
Just ask yourself, what are they really saying? If Barack Obama is not qualified to be president, what Black man is? So actually, their position is, no Black man is qualified to be president.
And by the way, gas was not 96 cents a gallon under Bill. And as for your job, when Bill signed NAFTA, he contributed to the current job loss in this country.
Wattree
Not his entire term, but I distinctly remember paying .96 a gallon for gas in Northern Va. The EXXON station is right across the street from my house. It was the talked of the city – how cheap gas was. How do you know how much I paid for gas in VA. You are in CA, right?!
Wattree, I'm sorry, but if I was running against Obama, I would say he was inexperience too. How do people run for elected office these days?! They talk NEGATIVELY about their opponent, right?! That's the first thing you hear and official running for office say, "he's (she's) inexperience." This isn't anything new. You have taken the Clinton words and twisted them around to suit your own militant "black power" mind. YOU are the one interjecting race!
Do you hear any women groups coming out and saying, "Obama is sexist because he said Clinton is inexperience and she's a cry-baby"
"Come on People," I find it annoying and pathetic how often we (blacks) are the only minority that complain on a regular about whites not treating us fairly; about whites picking on us.
People are running for president. They are suppose to "pull out all their guns" to win! This is no Miss America contest where you play nice!
Mustang Sallie,
You said:
"Wattree, I'm sorry, but if I was running against Obama, I would say he was inexperience too. How do people run for elected office these days?! They talk NEGATIVELY about their opponent, right?! That's the first thing you hear and official running for office say, "he's (she's) inexperience." This isn't anything new. You have taken the Clinton words and twisted them around to suit your own militant "black power" mind. YOU are the one interjecting race!"
What makes you assume I'm militant? I raised a son who's a Special Agent. Before he went through Quantico the federal government investigated both him and my entire family back through when I was a kid. So what makes you think I'm a militant, becase I happen to believe that a Black man is just as qualified to be president as a White person?
You've made an erroneous assumption based on incomplete evidence. That suggests a problem in processing information, and I'm afraid you just may be doing the very same thing with respect to Barack Obama.
What makes you think that I'm supporting Obama simply because he's Black? I didn't support either Jesse or Sharpton, and they're both very Black.
I'm supporting Barack Obama because I think he's the superior canidate--he intelligent, he's demonstrated character, and as for experience, he's singlehandedly taking on both a former president and a senator, with a total of 70 years of experience, with no problem. If he's not experienced, can you imagine what he's going to be like when he does become more experienced?
In addition, as president he will allow America to move forward. If the Clintons win, the Republicans hate them so much there's going to be more of the same old squabbling, bickering and gridlock that we've had for the past 16 years.
Obama is a man who's time has come, but go ahead and support the Clintons--that's your right. But I guarantee you, you're going to be on the wrong side of history.
Wattree
Wattree, I believe I made some very valid points in the previous email:
1. I'm sorry, but if I was running against Obama, I would say he was inexperience too. How do people run for elected office these days?! They talk NEGATIVELY about their opponent, right?! That's the first thing you hear an official running for office say, "he's (she's) inexperience."
2. Do you hear any women groups coming out and saying, "Obama is sexist because he said Clinton is inexperience and she's a cry-baby?"
3. People are running for president. They are suppose to "pull out all their guns" to win! This is no Miss America contest where you play nice!
Sorry my militant statement got you off track!
Also, you wrote:
"If he's not experienced, can you imagine what he's going to be like when he does become more experienced?"
Our country is in a crisis -- economy, war, healthcare, global image -- we don't have time to play catch-up. I can't vote for someone who is not ready NOW!
(Okay, heading out! Dont get mad if I don't respond to your response asap! have a good one!)
Mustang Sallie:
You said,
"Our country is in a crisis -- economy, war, healthcare, global image -- we don't have time to play catch-up. I can't vote for someone who is not ready NOW!"
That brings us full circle. Please tell me what experience Hillary has in resolving any of those things? And come to think of it, you never answered my first question--what have the Clintons specifically done for Black people?
I don't expect you to answer those questions, Mustang--just think about them.
Wattree
Mustang Sallie,
BENEATH THE SPIN • ERIC L. WATTREE, SR.
WHEN I LOOK AT BARACK OBAMA
When I look at Barack Obama, I not only wonder why every Black person in America isn’t supporting him, but why they aren’t jumping up and down with glee at the opportunity. I’ve had many people tell me--both Black and White--that I’m just supporting Obama because he’s Black. True, I am supporting Obama because he’s Black, but not ONLY because he’s Black. I’m supporting Barack Obama because in spite of being blessed with Black skin, and all the disadvantages that entails, this brother has managed to rise head and shoulders above the very best this society has to offer. That not only empowers him, but it also it allows Black youth to embrace their Blackness with a lot more genuine pride. It allows them say, but more importantly think, “Yes, I’m Black, and you’re damn right I am somebody! I’m the product of a great and resilient people–and as the Bible points out, “As a man thinketh in his heart, so is he.”
So no, I don’t support Obama just because he’s Black–I support him because he’s Black, on top of all his other fine qualities. Both Jesse and Sharpton are also Black, and I didn’t support either of them. But this was different. When Barack Obama stepped upon the world stage, I could feel a change in the air, like something important had just happened, or a significant presence had just entered the room. And I wasn’t alone–White folks across this land also felt it. Then the change started to take hold. I noticed that in places that would have met Martin with attack dogs and fire hoses, I saw White people jumping up and down, smiling and singing, some them with tears in their eyes, and straining just to just touch this young Black man. That’s when I knew it was happening. I knew it was coming eventually, but not like this. He came fast, with impatience, and seemingly out of nowhere, because he knew his time had come. And like the Phil Collins song, I could feel it comin’ in the air, oh Lord! Yeah, it was clear there was something different going on here –something that’s been in the cards since that first slave looked to the sky and said, “Help us Lord.”
Now, I not a religious fanatic, so I’m not about to sit here and preach you a sermon. But I am spiritual, and I’m telling you, Obama’s arrival ain’t no accident. I don’t know why, but some things are just meant to be–and if you look at them in hindsight, you can see it! When you look back on Martin and Malcolm, it’s clear they were meant to be. I don’t know why, but some men are just put on Earth to fulfil a plan. You can laugh at me if you want to, but I’m telling you, Obama is one of those people.
Think about it. This brother is just the opposite of everything nasty that racists have ever said about Black people. They said that we were ignorant, nasty, lazy, and didn’t have any class–then this brother pops up out of nowhere. If God had handpicked somebody to show that everything racists said about Black people was a lie, we couldn’t have done any better than Barack Obama–He’s such a clean-cut brother that Senator Joe Biden got in trouble for commenting on it. His intellect and academic credentials are beyond dispute–Hillary went to Yale Law School and then got out and couldn’t pass the bar; but Obama was the very first Black president and editor of the Harvard Law Review. When he becomes president, he’ll easily be the one of the smartest presidents in the history of this country. Think about what that’s going to do to the argument of people want to say that Black people are intellectually inferior–but more importantly, think about what it’s going to do to the self-esteem of Black children. And sa for the argument that we lack class, he’s easily the classiest politician that we’ve ever had in this country.
So looking at Obama is like looking into a crystal ball–he’s a perfect reflection of everything the future holds for us as a people. Even his personal heritage is a perfect metaphor for the African American people as a whole–he’s the product of a marriage between Africa and America. That’s what we are. In other words, Obama is the walking, breathing, personification of who we are as a people.
Obama represents the future of Black people as a whole. Many brothers like to refer back to antiquity to cite the past greatness of our people as something for us to hold on to, but while I recognize and appreciate our great contribution to the past, I’m convinced that it is the future that will define our true greatness. As African Americans, are a new culture that’s in the infancy of our development as a people. We’re a people who were conceived in pain, born into struggle, and baptized in adversity. But adversity is experience, and experience is the source of knowledge, so we are uniquely suited to create a new, better, and more compassionate world. Therefore, our history lies before us, and I’m convinced that history will someday reflect that Barack Obama was the first step in our emergence as a people.
All of us who are sitting here today, are blessed to be living in this moment. We are a witness to history. We’re living a time that history will someday record as the defining moment of our legacy as a people. And someday, maybe hundreds of years from now, young Black people will be able to look back on our contribution to history and say . . .
I NOW STAND FIRM
I Now stand firm. My dedication to the power of knowledge is the platform upon which my podium rests. I stand firm, strong, and now free. Free of anger, free of self-delusion, free of the folly of empty vanity, and free of the pernicious bane of meaningless pride without substance.
I stand free to look upon the eyes of other men, reflecting dignity over sorrow, and accomplishment over pain; I stand with a burning passion, fueled by the very flame that forged ancestral shackles, with a deep sense of pride, and a pride that flows deep.
I now stand erect! The steel that once degraded my father, that chained him in bondage to this bitter Earth, now reinforce my character, making me more, rather than less; and the blood and sweat that once drenched his brow, and oozed from the yoke around his neck, now rage with resolve and a sense of purpose, and trembles with passion, within my burning breast.
I now stand as a new being–neither simply African, nor simply American, but a hybrid forced to transcend the sum of my parts; no longer simply African, since being torn away from the African motherland to suffer and toil in the fields of America, and more than simply American, after being forced to be more than simply American, Just to survive within the bowels of this prosperous land.
Thus, I stand now armed—armed with the wisdom of deprivation, the courage of my conviction, and a deep conviction of my courage; and fortified–with the confidence of a survivor, the empowerment of knowledge, and a ravishing hunger for greatness.
I now stand the product of love, struggle, and sacrifice; a witness to man's inhumanity to man, and a monument to the hopes and dreams of a million slaves. I stand embraced by my creator,
as God now smiles upon my people.
Yes, I Now Stand Firm. Firm, Black, and Free.
Eric L. Wattree
Wattree.blogspot.com
Hutchinson tells us "the Bradley effect is alive and well". But lest he actually be called on to defend that point he also claims "The Bradley Effect is murky, amorphous, and virtually defies fingering."
I wouldn't totally discount the effect, but this is really trying to have it both ways.
The SC results today there were basically the exact opposite of the Bradley effect! Obama was just polling at 10% among whites and ended up around 24%. What does that mean? If Hutchinson is going to cite Nevada as an example fine, then he really needs to address what happened in SC.
I think it's about time to start thinking about "the Obama effect", that's about to put a Black man in the White House.
Wattree
I tried to ignore the postings by Andy Martin about the fabrications, inventions and what he called outright lies that Obama wrote in his "autobiography". Then I had to ignore his wife's sitting on the board of directors of a hospital making $300,000+ a year. The hospital that has been charged with dumping patients and also with charging poor and mostly minority patients with no insurance 3x the amount charged to insured patients. But, the thing that really gave me more than a reasonable doubt about Obama were the articles in zmag, BlackCommentary and in the BlackAgendaReport. Have the Obama supporters really taken time to look at Obama's votng record (voted the same as Hillary 257 out of 267 times), or read any of his book, "The Audacity of Hope"? I didn't read his book, but Paul Street did. His discussion of Obama's book I found very depressing and did make me wonder why any Black would choose to support him.
From Paul Street:
BLACK EXPERIENCE “NOT FUNDAMENTALLY DIFFERENT”
We know that the technically black Obama has political reasons to avoid threatening the white electoral majority. Still it is too much for him to absurdly claim, in his power-adoring 2006 campaign book The Audacity of Hope (3), that “what ails working- and middle-class blacks and Latinos is not fundamentally different from what ails their white counterparts”(Obama 2006, p. 245). Also rather audacious is Obama’s praise of the U.S. for historically possessing “an economic system that, more than any other, has offered opportunity to all comers regardless of status, title or rank”(Obama 2006, pp. 231-232) – including apparently the many millions of black chattel “comers” who came in chains, carrying literally subhuman “status.” Just to make sure that no Caucasians fear he’s about reawaken the tragically unfinished revolutions of Reconstruction and the Civil Rights Movement, Obama calms white anxieties further by claiming that black Americans (who suffer from a median household wealth gap of seven cents on the white dollar in the 21st century United States) have been “pulled into the economic mainstream” (Obama, 2006, pp. 248-49).
He also apologizes for whites’ indifference to the persistence of profound racial inequality and discrimination in the U.S (see Street.2007c and Brown 2003) by explaining that “white guilt has largely exhausted itself in America” as “even the most fair-minded of whites…tend to push back against suggestions of racial victimization and race-based claims based on the history of racial discrimination in this country” (Obama 2006, p. 247). This statement of understanding toleration for white racism-denial deftly consigns racial oppression to the supposedly finished past, cleverly deleting its continuing and deeply cumulative (Brown 2003) relevance in the living historical present (4).
“THE VOICE OF THE COUNCIL OF FOREIGN RELATIONS”
The self-described “American exceptionalist” Obama has obvious political reasons to try to bring to his campaign as much of the imperial U.S. foreign policy establishment as he can. Still, it is a bit much to hear him “ponder” with a sense of awe “the work” of imperial U.S. Cold War architects George Kennan and George Marshall (Obama 2006, p. 36). Is it really essential for him to applaud the wonderful (he thinks) “post-[World] War [Two] leadership of president Truman, Dean Acheson, George Marshall and George Kennan” for “craft[ing]... a...new...order that married [Woodrow] Wilsonian idealism to hardheaded realism, an acceptance of American power with a humility regarding America’s ability to control events around the world” (Obama 2006, p. 284)? This is a remarkably deferential and whitewashed commentary on such memorable moments in American “humility” as the arch-criminal atom-bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki (mass-murderous shots across the bow of the emerging Cold War), the mass-murderous U.S. assaults on Korea and Indochina (3 million “enemy” dead), the U.S. restoration of fascist power in “liberated” Italy, the U.S. intervention against popular social revolution in Greece (smeared as a Soviet export by U.S. policymakers in order to “Scare the Hell out of the American people” to garner support for massive new imperial “defense” expenditures) and the U.S. subversion of democracy and national independence across the planet: Iran (1953), Dominican Republic (1965), Guatemala (1954), Chile (1970-1973), Indonesia (1965) are just some of the more spectacular examples in a list that goes on and on.
Maybe it's a black thing,and I just don't understand.
You know, it's kinda hard to take a person seriously who would regurgitate such scurillous accusations and not have the courage to give his name. Even if you ordinarily posted anonymously, after making such an accusation you should reveal yourself.
You're probably another one of Hillary's turncoats, i.e. Robert Johnson. It's funny how the Clinton's loved to embrace Blacks until one of us dared to think he could sit at the table with them.
People, expect to see a lot more of this--they're getting desparate now.
And Hutch, you need to vet this kind of stuff. It's on your site, so it reflects on you.
Wattree
To anonymous,
who says
"Maybe it is a black thing,
I don't understand."
Truly, you and other doubters
would "understand" if you were
to have an opened mind.
Listen, digest and try to comprehend what Mancheeks64, wattree, and Listingagent
are trying to tell you.
Be not and let not your
mind be puzzled about the
facts about Obama.
What do you think about what is going now with Detroit's Mayor?
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